Statistics Canada reports sharp decline in agricultural inventories

Durum stocks as of March 31 are pegged at 1.467 mmt, down 49.1% from a year ago and down 58.8% from the five-year average. Of this volume, 610,000 metric tons (mt) or 41.6% remain on the farm, a volume that has fallen by 71% over the past year. This is the lowest volume reported since March 1986.

Canada’s canola stocks were estimated at 3,940 mmt, down 49.3% from a year ago and 58% below the five-year average, the tightest stocks seen since March 2005. This represents only 27.4% of the estimated supply for 2021-2022, which is estimated to be 37.5% less than in 2020-21. Of this volume, 56% is on the farm at 2,201 mmt, a volume that has fallen by 63% over the past year. Estimated stocks are only slightly below the volume required to meet AAFC’s current demand forecast while ending the year with extremely tight stocks of 400,000 mt.

Barley stocks at 1.646mmt are down 43.7% from a year ago and 51% below the five-year average, likely the lowest on record. On-farm stocks (-43%) and commercial stocks (-46%) are down from last year, with 81% of the estimated volume reported on-farm. Feed use is estimated at 3.8 mmt, down 1.9 mmt from the previous crop year, in line with AAFC’s current forecast for the crop year, while exports fell by 755,300 mt from the previous crop year. compared to the previous crop year.

Oat stocks are reported at 947,000 tonnes, down 48.6% from a year ago and 48% below the five-year average. These are likely the lowest stocks on record as of March 31, with 68% of that volume on-farm, volume that has also fallen 57% year-over-year.

Pea stocks have fallen 34.9% over the past year to 1.224 mmt, the lowest stocks seen in 10 years. Lentil stocks have fallen 35% over the past year to 949,000 tonnes, the lowest level in six years.

Soybean stocks are reported at 2.014 mmt, up 0.1% from a year ago and 21.7% below the five-year average for that date, with 55% of that estimated volume in storage at the farm. The December equity report showed stocks down 6.4% year over year, while as of March 31 they were up 0.1% from a year ago. year. The pace of exports is expected to slow from last crop year, with exports as of December 31 down 5.4% from a year ago, while they slowed to 7% from last year. last year to March 31.

Maize stocks as of March 31 stood at 9.282 mmt, up 13.9% from last year and 11.6% from the five-year average. About 57% of this volume is on-farm, down from 65% of a lower overall volume of on-farm inventory at the same time last year. This report was considered bearish for corn as a whole.

Cliff Jamieson can be reached at [email protected]

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