Statistics Canada merchandise trade data for October
Canary seed exports totaled 12,524 mt in October, the highest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports total 29,338 mt, down 10.7% from the same period of the previous crop year and 10.9% below the five-year average. This represents 24.4% of AAFC’s current forecast of 120,000 mt, which was revised down to 5,000 mt in the November report. Statistics Canada’s final production estimate last week put the prairie canarygrass harvest at 109,000 mt, which is only 3,000 mt lower than the estimate used by AAFC.
Canada exported 22,072 mt of flax in October, the highest volume shipped in five months. About 53% of that volume was shipped to the United States, while volumes from China and Belgium increased sharply from the previous month. Three-month exports total 46,276 mt, down 47.6% from the same period of the previous crop year and 47.4% from the five-year average. Total exports reached 16.7% of the steady pace needed to reach AAFC’s current forecast of 375,000 mt, while it is important to note that AAFC has downgraded its flax production forecast by 32 800 mt, which will require a corresponding change in government exports. forecast.
Canada exported 611,165 mt of barley in October, the highest volume shipped in at least a single month in the past five years, with 97.3% of that volume shipped to China. In the first three months of the crop year, 988,621 mt were shipped, 32.6% more than the same period of the previous crop year and 136% more than the five-year average for that period. This represents 44% of the current AAFC forecast of 2,250 mt, which was revised upward by 200,000 mt in November. This increase could be difficult to achieve, with Statistics Canada revising production downward by 193,300 mt this month.
Oat exports in October were 171,442 mt, the highest monthly volume shipped in 10 months, although the smallest October exports were reported in five years. Cumulative exports total 508,308 mt, down 27.7% from the same period of the previous crop year and 12.4% from the five-year average. In November, AAC revised its export forecast upwards from 50,000 mt to 1,850 mt, as the current pace of exports exceeds the pace needed to meet this forecast. Statistics Canada’s latest production estimate included a 27,300 mt increase in expected production, to 2,606 mmt, although the percentage of acres harvested was equal to the five-year average and appeared suspect in a year when the animal feed was crowded on the Prairies. It deserves to be observed.
Corn exports totaled 31,333 mt in October, of which 73% went to the United States and the rest was almost entirely shipped to Ireland. In the first two months of the row crop year, exports total 89,695 mt, up 17.1% from the same two months in 2020, while 12% above the five-year average. Exports only covered 6% of AAFC’s current export forecast of 1.5 mmt and below the pace needed to achieve this export volume, while this forecast was revised by 100,000 mt at the increase in November.
Corn imports in October totaled 255,566 mt, the highest monthly import volume since July 2019. In the two months of the 2021-22 row crop year, Canada imported 421,830 mt, up 33. 6% over the same period, while remaining below the sustained pace needed to meet the current forecast of 3mmt published by AAC.
Data for October show that Canada exports 973,184 mt of soybeans, the largest monthly volume moved since November 2018. This volume was distributed among 33 countries, with Italy being the main destination with 127,604 mt. In the first two months of the crop year, exports total 1.078 mmt, up 6.2% from the same period of the previous crop year and 23.9% above the five-year average. The pace of exports is greater than the sustained pace needed to meet the current forecast of 4 mmt released by AAFC, while final production estimates this month included an upward revision of 385,700 mt in soybean production from the United States. Canada, which should allow an upward revision of exports by a similar amount.
Canola oil exports were reported at 249,504 mt, the highest volume shipped this year. Cumulative exports total 644,594 mt, down 18.1% from the same period of the previous crop year and 19.7% from the three-year average.
Canola meal exports total 432,799 mt, the highest volume shipped in four months. Cumulative exports total 1.160 mmt, down 8.1% from last year and 1.2% above the three-year average.
Ethanol imports totaled 135 million liters in October, one of the largest monthly volumes ever imported, if not the largest. In the 10 months of 2021, imports are up 3.7% from the same period last year, while 0.7% below the three-year average.
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